Base Oils Disrupted: War-Driven Supply Tightness

In this special edition episode, we discuss the impact of the US–Iran conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz on the global base oil markets. Even as trade flows evolve, Group III supply remains limited, driving price spikes in the US and Europe. Market participants look towards Asia as supply is showing signs of a recovery and China’s growing output is reducing its reliance on imports. We examine shifting arbitrage, demand erosion from high prices, and the near-term supply outlook amid persistent geopolitical uncertainty.