Argus Media

Exploring the global bitumen trends in 2026, with a closer look at how disruption to Middle Eastern oil supplies has exposed the Asia’s reliance on refinery operations and reshaped the region’s bitumen outlook.

The global bitumen market has shifted from concerns over demand to the resilience of supply. Asia's limited access to preferred bituminous crude, lower refinery throughput and stronger returns from transport fuels have constrained production and pushed seaborne prices to record highs.

Drawing on the latest Argus Bitumen Analytics, Oliver Thompson (Global Lead, Argus Bitumen Analytics), Swasti Dharmadhikari (Lead Bitumen Analyst, Asia) and Sathya Narayanan (Associate Editor, Argus Bitumen) examine how these pressures are changing regional trade and what could support a recovery from 2027.

 

Listen to discover:

• What is driving the loss in global bitumen production, forecast at only 117mn t despite having 185mn t/yr of installed capacity

• How crude constraints pushed Asian seaborne prices to record highs

• Why Middle East-India freight costs have risen from below $100/t to more than $300/t

• How China’s recovery and India’s demand growth will shape Asia’s outlook through 2030

 

Argus Bitumen Analytics combines forward-looking global and regional analysis with country-level supply and demand balances covering more than 100 countries. Explore the latest report for deeper insight into the refinery economics, production trends and changing trade flows shaping bitumen markets through 2030.

 

Usinas de biodiesel e etanol no Brasil estão de olho no que pode ser uma solução para o superávit da produção: o mercado global de combustíveis marítimos. Conforme as discussões sobre combustíveis alternativos se intensificam no exterior, o governo brasileiro se movimenta para atender aos padrões internacionais e desenvolver o mercado doméstico de biobunker. Neste episódio do Falando de Mercado, Natália Coelho e Gabriel Tassi Lara, responsáveis por precificação de combustíveis marítimos da Argus, falam sobre as expectativas dos participantes desse mercado antes da reunião da Organização Marítima Internacional no final do ano.

 

Os tópicos discutidos neste episódio incluem: 

 

• Projeto de Lei para criação da política nacional de combustíveis sustentáveis de navegação e consulta pública da ANP

• Alinhamento com a Organização Marítima Internacional

• Potencial do etanol de milho de segunda safra

• Enquadramento na FuelEU

• Expectativas para reunião da IMO

Biodiesel and ethanol producers in Brazil are looking at what could become a solution to their production surplus: the global marine fuels market. As discussions around alternative fuels gain momentum abroad, the Brazilian government is taking steps to align with international standards and develop the domestic bio-bunker market. In this episode of Market Talks, marine fuels pricing specialists Natália Coelho and Gabriel Tassi Lara discuss market participants’ expectations ahead of the International Maritime Organization (IMO) meeting at the end of the year.

Key themes:

• Proposed legislation to establish Brazil’s National Sustainable Marine Fuels Policy and ANP’s public consultation process

• Alignment with International Maritime Organization (IMO) regulations

• The potential of second-crop corn ethanol

• Compliance with FuelEU requirements

• Expectations for the upcoming IMO meeting

In this week's Strait Talk, Argus experts examine the intersection of politics, sanctions, shipping and oil flows as the US midterm elections approach and geopolitical tensions continue to shape market sentiment.

Physical vs futures pricing: Rising Middle East spot sales have narrowed Brent futures' discount to North Sea Dated, while producers take on more Hormuz transit and insurance risk as export flows recover.

• Freight and Hormuz security: Repeated shipping attacks keep freight costs very high, while Asian refiners are seeking lower Middle East term volumes to diversify supply.
• Diesel tightness and policy response: Diesel cracks remain near triple-digit levels and inventories are low. Policy moves are unlikely to help soon because refinery capacity is stretched and Russian flows are constrained.
• Macro and political fallout: Fuel prices are stoking inflation and highlighting AI boom/bust risks. The US and Israeli elections and Iran's demands for any reopening of Hormuz add further uncertainty.

Os recursos de hidrogênio presentes no subsolo podem oferecer uma forma completamente diferente de produzir hidrogênio de baixo carbono. Investidores estão apostando nessa tecnologia, governos estão concedendo licenças de exploração e acordos comerciais já estão sendo firmados. Mas, apesar do entusiasmo, ainda existem grandes incertezas em relação a aspectos científicos e comerciais. Acompanhe a conversa entre Camila Fontana, chefe-adjunta da redação da Argus em São Paulo, e Pamela Machado, colaboradora do relatório Hydrogen and Future Fuels no escritório da Argus em Paris.

 

Os tópicos discutidos neste episódio incluem:

 

• Potenciais vantagens do hidrogênio geológico 

• Projetos de exploração já anunciados em vários continentes

• Potencial de produção em escala comercial

• Ressalvas e particularidades do hidrogênio como energia

• Presença de gás hélio em reservatórios 

• Descobertas na América Latina

 

Hydrogen resources found underground could offer a completely different way of producing low-carbon hydrogen. Investors are betting on this technology, governments are granting exploration licenses, and commercial agreements are already being signed. But despite the excitement, major scientific and commercial uncertainties still remain. Listen to the conversation between Camila Fontana, Deputy Bureau Chief at Argus in São Paulo, and Paris-based Pamela Machado, a contributor to the Hydrogen and Future Fuels report.

 

Topics discussed in this episode include:

 

• Potential advantages of geological hydrogen

• Exploration projects already announced across several continents

• Potential for production at commercial scale

• Caveats and particular characteristics of hydrogen as an energy source

• Presence of helium gas in reservoirs

• Discoveries in Latin America

In this week's Strait Talk, Argus experts examine why freight rates are rising so rapidly, whether increasing Middle East exports are driving demand for tankers, and what the implications are for crude-importing regions such as Europe and Asia.

As shipping costs climb, the economics of oil trading are becoming increasingly strained. Freight premiums are adding tens of dollars per barrel to delivered crude costs, raising questions about demand destruction and the sustainability of current market pricing.

Crude futures are easing as Saudi supply returns, but tight physical barrels, Hormuz risks and diesel stress mean sentiment could turn fast

 

In this week's episode, David notes the easing of prices since September highs as recovery in crude pipeline and tanker flows has been absorbed by the market. But attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz are if anything increasing, physical prices are still signalling alarm and further draws in already-tight distillate stocks are on the agenda. As the Atlantic hurricane season progresses, attention is turning towards Gulf Coast diesel and LNG exports.

 

• Futures ease, physical stays tight: Crude futures have pulled back since the Saudi East-West pipeline restarted, but physical North Sea Dated still trades at a steep premium to Brent futures.
• Hormuz flows are recovering despite attacks: Record tanker freight rates are tempting shippers to run the gauntlet, and crude shipments through the Strait are climbing back towards pre-crisis levels.
• Diesel and gas are the next worry: A G7 emergency stock release has eased pressure, but diesel margins remain extreme and a tropical storm is heading for US Gulf Coast refineries and LNG facilities, so sentiment could turn quickly.

Business aviation is moving SAF from early adoption to everyday airport operations, bringing new demands around fuel quality, logistics and customer confidence. In this episode of SAF Insights, Louise Burke (Senior Vice President, Oil Products and Global Aviation and Renewables) speaks with Keith Sawyer (Manager, Alternative Fuels, Avfuel Corporation) about the practical steps required to deliver certified SAF across a growing US network.

Key themes

• Scaling SAF from pilot projects to nationwide supply
• Certification and traceability: ASTM and ISCC requirements
• Growth opportunities: Feedstocks, blending hubs and regional demand

Airport adoption: The role of customers and communities