Argus Media

Fertilizer Matters EP44: Chinese Ammonia Market

Hear Argus’ essential analysis of what’s driving China’s ammonia production expansion and exports surge, where this new Chinese supply is coming from, key export destinations, as well as the impact of CBAM and the Middle East war on Chinese ammonia prices. We also introduce the new Argus Ammonia fob China weekly price assessment.

Join Ruth Sharpe, Global Editor - Ammonia and Dinise Chng, Senior Reporter – Fertilizers as they discuss these topics in the latest episode of Argus' Fertilizer Matters podcast series.

Key questions answered in this podcast:

• Could China become a net exporter of ammonia in 2026?
• Why did Chinese ammonia exports surge in Q4 2025 — and where did they go?
• Why is Chinese ammonia typically more expensive than ammonia sourced from Southeast Asia and the Middle East?
• What’s driving China’s growth in ammonia production, and where is this new supply coming from?
• What are the most likely destinations for Chinese ammonia exports?
• How have CBAM and the Middle East war impacted Chinese ammonia prices?
• Why did Argus launch the Ammonia fob China weekly price assessment, and how does it enhance price transparency?

Strait Talk: Crisis in the Gulf

At week 5 of the US-Iran war, disruption in the Strait of Hormuz has removed more than 10 million b/d from global supply and pushed oil markets into extreme volatility. In this special edition update, our Middle East team breaks down the latest developments and what they mean for exports, prices and regional stability.

Tom Reed (VP - China, Crude and Oil Products) joins our Dubai‑based experts Nader Itayim (Middle East Editor) and Bachar Halabi (Senior Correspondent) for a focused briefing on the crisis shaping global energy.

Listen to discover: 

• What the latest military movements signal.
• Oil market impact: Where production has been lost — and why it matters.
• Damage assessment: How long it may take for fields and refineries to recover.
• Logistics disruption: The challenges of restarting flows through Hormuz.
• And much more

The Strait of Hormuz is the world’s most critical oil corridor. With flows severely constrained and repairs expected to take months - if not years - this episode delivers the essential insight market participants need now.

Please note this, podcast was recorded on 30 March - Keep up-to-date with the latest market developments here

 

Crude Report: Hormuz disruptions put Canadian export crude in the global spotlight

John's LI profile: https://www.linkedin.com/in/john-cordner-538059219/ Jeff's LI profile: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jeff-kralowetz-7823299/

 In this Crude Report episode, Argus VP of Business Development Jeff Kralowetz talks with waterborne crude reporter, John Cordner, about how demand for Canadian "dilbit" crude has soared in Asia and at the US Gulf coast in the wake of shipping disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz. They also look at the emergence of Western Canadian Select (WCS) at Houston as a strong regional reference price and benchmark   Key Topics covered:

• How pooling of WCS and Cold Lake trades at Houston has created an exceptionally liquid and transparent price index
• How Asian demand for distillate-rich crude is likely to increase the region's buying of Canadian dilbit, both from Vancouver and Houston
• How strong crack spreads at the US Gulf coast have strengthened WCS Houston vs the light benchmark WTI Houston
• Who is continuing to buy Canadian dilbit at the US Gulf coast

They also share details on the upcoming Argus Canada Biofuels and Crude Forums on April 22 at the Calgary Petroleum Club where attendees will have a chance to meet Argus crude, freight, and consulting teams for live market discussion and networking.   Register here: https://view.argusmedia.com/canada-forum-2026

Metal Movers: How the Iran Conflict Is Impacting Global Non‑Ferrous Metals Markets

Falando de Mercado: Clima e safra de soja 2025-26

O início de ano foi marcado por tempo chuvoso e as projeções sinalizam recorde na produção de soja em Mato Grosso na temporada 2025-26. Nathalia Giannetti, colaboradora dos relatórios Argus AgriMarkets e Argus Brasil Grãos e Fertilizantes, participou de uma visita a lavouras do estado organizada por tradings, corretoras e produtoras de grãos. Ela falou dessa experiência e das condições da safra nessa conversa com a editora Renata Cardarelli. 

 

 Alguns dos tópicos discutidos:

 

• Resultados das amostras coletadas nas plantações 

• Impacto das chuvas em cronograma e qualidade das plantas

• Planos para safra de milho 

• Projeções para outros estados

Market Talks: 2025–26 Soybean Crop Outlook

The beginning of the year was marked by rainy weather, and projections indicate record soybean production in Mato Grosso for the 2025–26 season. Nathalia Giannetti, contributor to the Argus AgriMarkets and Argus Brazil Grains and Fertilizers reports, took part in a visit to farms in the state organized by trading companies, brokers, and grain producers. She spoke about this experience and the crop conditions in a conversation with editor Renata Cardarelli.

 

Some of the topics discussed:

 

• Results of collected samples

• Impact of rainfall on schedule and plant quality

• Plans for the corn crop

• Projections for other states

The Crude Report: Crude on War

The US–Iran war has rattled crude markets, leaving almost a fifth of global supply effectively trapped inside the Mideast Gulf. Europe felt the impact later than Asia‑Pacific, but three weeks into the conflict, refiners across Europe are feeling the pinch.

Argus deputy crude editor, Lina Bulyk, and Mediterranean crude reporter Ellanee Kruck discuss how the war is reshaping European crude flows so far, and possible challenges in the weeks ahead.

Topics covered:

• How wide a supply gap the conflict could open in northwest Europe and the Mediterranean

• The alternative feedstock options refiners may turn to

• The broader implications for European market structure and regional refining margins

Global LPG Conversations: Scenario analysis for LPG markets disrupted by Gulf war

Join LPG editor Peter Wilton as he quizzes Argus Consulting's Jack Greenwood on what we could see next for LPG prices and fundamentals.

• How has the war and the closure of the strait of Hormuz affected fundamentals so far?
• Base case scenarios of the strait of Hormuz being closed for 2 months vs. it opening again this week
• Why stock draw down is not a long term option
• The importance of differentiating between propane and butane to understand supply challenges

These key insights come from Argus LPG Outlook, a service providing critical global analysis and forecasts for prices and market fundamentals.

Argus Metals Movers: Turkey's flat steel trade patterns set to shift in 2026

Turkish imports of Russian hot rolled coil and slab rose sharply through 2025 as suppliers shifted material away from Europe. Elif Eyuboglu, senior reporter at Argus Media, spoke to Tolga Yigit Cekicler, direct procurement manager at Tatmetal, about how these changes, along with upcoming EU quota reductions, expected UK controls on Turkish HDG and new Turkish antidumping margins, could influence Turkeys flat steel market in 2026.

 

Key topics covered in the podcast

• Growth in Russian HRC and slab shipments into Turkey and whether mills may look for alternative sourcing as EU origin checks increase

• Impact of the EU’s plan to introduce post-safeguard regime in 2026

• Expected UK decision to place Turkish HDG under quota control and the possible shift in Turkish shipment strategies

• Turkey’s new antidumping margins on CR HDG and PPGI from South Korea and China and which further measures could have the strongest effect

• Potential changes in trade flows if access through the Strait of Hormuz is restricted and whether Chinese volumes could be redirected to Turkey

• Exposure of Turkish mills to another increase in electricity and natural gas prices if regional tensions tighten energy markets

 

Chemical Conversations: Assessing the Middle East conflict’s impact on the global ethylene outlook

Recent geopolitical disruption centred in the Middle East is redirecting product movements creating new pressures in the near‑term ethylene outlook.

 

 

Argus petrochemical consultants Alan Williamson in London and Toon Shien Lee in Singapore provide their initial assessment on how the conflict is impacting the ethylene market balances, particularly on feedstocks and product trade flows, ahead of the Argus Chemicals Forum on 26 March in Houston and AFPM on 29 - 31 March in San Antonio, Texas.

 

 

Listen to the latest episode to hear:

 

• What is the immediate and likely short‑term impact on the forecast for ethylene balances and regional outlooks across Europe, Asia and the US
• The key dynamics shaping the coming months, including feedstock and product availability, pricing dynamics and underlying demand signals
• How varying regional exposure and adaptability may influence near‑term market conditions